通讯作者: 蒋俊俊, 765221811@qq.com

DOI：10.12201/bmr.202504.00006

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of HFMD in Liangqing District, Nanning,2012-2023

• 摘要：【】目的 分析2012-2023年南宁市良庆区手足口病流行病学及病原学特征,为有效防控手足口病疫情提供科学依据。 方法 采用描述性流行病学方法描述手足口病的三间分布特征,利用SARIMA模型对手足口病发病趋势进行预测。结果 2012-2023年南宁市良庆区累计报告手足口病19715例,平均报告发病率为387.26/10万,不同年份发病率差异具有统计学(?2=6085.585,P<0.01)。城区累计报告病例最多(79.40%)。发病时间主要集中在4-10月(88.08%),发病人群以6月龄到5岁高发(94.75%),以散居儿童、托幼机构儿童为主(97.38%)。2012-2023年累计报告实验室诊断病例588例,以其他肠道病毒检出率最高(69.56%),EV71检出率相对较低(11.90%)。SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,2)12为最优预测模型,预测结果显示,2024年、2025年南宁市良庆区手足口病发病水平较2023年下降。结论 南宁市良庆区手足口病发病率较高,以6月龄-5岁以下儿童高发。建议加强疫情监测力度,持续开展病原学监测工作,增强宣教力度,提高群众防病意识。

   

  Abstract: 【】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Nanning City, Liangqing District from 2012 to 2023, aiming to provide scientific for effective prevention and control of HFMD . Methods? Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the three distribution characteristics of HFMD,and the SARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend of HFMD. Results From 2012 to 2023, a total of 19175 cases of HFMD were reported in Nanning City, Liangqing District., with an average reported incidence rate of 387.26 /100,000. The incidence of HFMD in different years had a statistical difference(?2= 6085.585, P<0.01). The highest proportion of reported cases was in urban areas (79.40%). The onset time was mainly concentrated from April to October (88.08%).The incidence was high in the population from 6 months to 5 years old(94.75%),and the majority were scattered children and children in kindergartens (97.38%). A total of 588 laboratory-diagnosed cases were reported from 2012 to2023, with the highest detection rate of other enteroviruses(69.56%)and a relatively low detection rate of EV7l (11.90%).Based on the optimal S ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,2)12 model analysis results, a projected decrease in annual incidence rates is expected for both 2024 and 2025compared to that of 2023. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District, Nanning, is notably high, particularly among children from 6 months to 5 years old. It is recommended to enhance epidemic monitoring, continue pathogen surveillance, improve public education, and raise awareness of disease prevention among the public..

  提交时间：2025-04-04

  版权声明：作者本人独立拥有该论文的版权，预印本系统仅拥有论文的永久保存权利。任何人未经允许不得重复使用。
• html

• 图表

• 杜雪杰, 葛辉. 基于BP神经网络方法构建手足口病预测预警模型设计研究. 2021. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202102.00002

  赵仁兵, 王楠, 李玲艳, 杨艳辉, 高芳芳, 杨梅, 齐爱霞, 陈莉萍. 2020-2022年淄博地区儿童呼吸道病原体检出情况分析. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202504.00019

  唐诗诗, 李宇轩, 唐圣晟, 刘庆华, 周毅. 基于SARIMA-LSTM模型的肾综合征出血热发病率预测研究. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202407.00046

  陈庚, 蒋雯. 血清ALB、CRP、GLB对复发性糖尿病足溃疡的预测价值. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202410.00061

  杨雷, 周梦倩, 汤铜. 术前淋巴结超声特征对甲状腺癌颈侧区淋巴结转移风险的预测. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202410.00035

  胡欣. 剖宫产术中寒战风险预测模型及列线图的构建. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202501.00053

  施明杰, 叶洪舟, 袁琛. 大环内酯类耐药肺炎支原体肺炎患儿发展为重症肺炎的危险因素分析及预测模型构建. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202409.00021

  王一凡, 石超君, 马安宁. Ⅱ型糖尿病并发动脉粥样硬化风险预测模型比较. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202404.00007

  曾静, 沙治慧. 我国生育保障水平测度及其区域差异研究——基于31省（市、区）数据的实证分析. 2022. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202206.00009

  王莎莎, 任毅, 杨静, 王建红. 公众对罕见病的网络关注特征分析. 2023. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202304.00002

• 序号	提交日期	编号	操作
  1	2025-03-04	bmr.202504.00006V1	下载

• 公开评论  匿名评论  仅发给作者 提交评论