Construction of a prediction model for postoperative survival of pancreatic cancer based on SMOTE-ENN combined with XGBoost algorithm

Corresponding author: GuoYarong, gyr5258@126.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202506.00058

•  

  Abstract: Purpose Different algorithms were used to build a prediction model for survival outcomes of patients after pancreatic cancer surgery based on the new version of AJCC staging and large-scale data.Methods? Based on the SEER database, SMOTE and SMOTE-ENN algorithms are used to process unbalanced data, LR, RF, SVM, DT, and XGBoost algorithms are used to build and compare prognostic models, and SHAP is introduced to interpret the models.Results? The performance of SMOTE-ENN combined with XGBoost model was the best (accuracy rate was 0.862, precision rate was 0.952, recall rate was 0.712, F1 value was 0.762, AUC value was 0.884, and Brier score was 0.108). The calibration curve and decision curve showed that the model had good calibration effect and high clinical application value respectively.Conclusion? The XGBoost model has the best performance and can be used as a new high-performance postoperative prognosis prediction model under AJCC staging that conforms to the current clinical staging system, providing theoretical support for predicting postoperative patient survival outcomes and formulating personalized treatment plans.

  Key words: pancreatic cancer; imbalanced data; XGBoost; outcome prediction

  Submit time: 23 June 2025

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
• html

• 图表

• ruanxuling, liuqi, guo zhiheng, yanjunfeng. Research on prediction model of breast cancer based on LDA and XGBoost algorithm. 2022. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202106.00007

  SHU Qijin. Experience of Shu Qijin in Treating Pancreatic Cancer from Stagnant Toxin due to Spleen Deficiency. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202507.00004

  zhou wei. Construction and Analysis of a Prediction Model for Hypertension Combined with Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction Based on Random Forest AlgorithmWANG Tingting1 ,ZHOU Wei1*. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202503.00046

  ZhouMengqian, Tang Tong. Prediction of Lateral Cervical Lymph Node metastasis risk in Thyroid Cancer based on preoperative Lymph Node Ultrasonographic Characteristics. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202410.00035

  Construction and application evaluation of risk prediction model and nomogram for shivering during cesarean sectio. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202501.00053

  Mo Wei, Xiang Ya, Liao Qiujiao, He Liu, Ling Chaoling, Lu Qixiang, Liu Fangyin. Research progress on risk prediction model of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with hip fractureWEI Yunshi1? MO Wei1? XIANG YA1? LIAO Qiujiao1? HE Liu2? LING Chaoling2? LU Qixiang2? LIU Fangyin3▲. 2024. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202409.00029

  duxuejie, gehui. Study on the design of prediction and early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease based on BP neural network.. 2021. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202102.00002

  WU Xiayang. Establishment and verification of a risk prediction model for neonatal sepsis in premature infants. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202505.00013

  qianlin, yangyi. Analysis the Medication Regularity of TCM in the Treatment of Breast Cancer in the Real World Based on Data Mining Method. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202506.00022

  付思思. Construction and validation of Nomogram analysis model for nausea and vomiting after lobectomy in non-small cell lung cancer patients. 2025. doi: 10.12201/bmr.202507.00001

• ID	Submit time	Number	Download
  1	2025-06-01	bmr.202506.00058V1	Download

• Public  Anonymous  To author only Submit Comments