Equity and Prediction Analysis of Health Management Human Resources Allocation in Anhui Province Based on Agglomeration and Grey Prediction Model

Corresponding author: wangyanzhao, 2427541170@qq.com

DOI: 10.12201/bmr.202410.00075

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  Abstract: Objective:To analyze the equity of health management human resources allocation in Anhui Province, predict the number of health management personnel in the next five years, and optimize the allocation of health human resources in Anhui Province. Methods: The Health Resource Agglomeration Degree (HRAD) method was used to evaluated the equity of health management human resources allocation in Anhui Province among different geographic regions, populations, and GDP. Data visualization was achieved with Arcgis 10.2. And the number of health management personnel in Anhui Province for 2021 ~ 2025 was predicted by GM (1,1). Results: From 2014 to 2020, the number of health management personnel in Anhui Province continued to grow but at a slow rate. HRAD of health management personnel in Anhui Province was higher than 1, both HRAD/PAD and HRAD/EAD were below 1. The allocation of health management personnel among different cities was unbalanced. It is expected that the number of health management personnel in Anhui Province will reach 22496 by 2025. Conclusion: It is urgent to pay attention to the construction of health management personnel in Anhui Province, focus on the influence of demographic and economic factors on the equity allocation of health management personnel, and continuously strengthen the collaboration between various departments to promote “healthy Anhui”.

  Key words: health management human resources; equity; agglomeration degree; prediction; gray prediction model

  Submit time: 30 October 2024

  Copyright: The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted biomedRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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