通讯作者: 杨莉, lyang@bjmu.edu.cn

DOI：10.12201/bmr.202203.00008

Influencing factors analysis on price reduction in national volume-based drug procurement.

• 摘要：目的：分析国家组织药品集中带量采购过程中生产企业是否中选及中选价格影响因素，探讨带量采购政策效果及是否仍有提升空间。方法：选取第二批-第五批药品集中带量采购涉及品种进行分析，以中选企业是否中选以及价格降幅为因变量，企业特征和竞争因素相关指标为自变量，采用Heckman两阶段模型分析药品价格降幅及是否中选的影响因素并控制潜在的选择偏倚。结果：原研企业相较于仿制药企业中选概率更低，但是一旦中选其价格降幅相较于仿制药企业高41%；市场份额较小企业相较于原有市场份额较高企业(>50%)中选概率更大，但价格降幅低7%；具备原料药生产加工资质的企业更易中选，但是价格降幅相较于不具备相关资质企业没有显著差异；潜在竞争者数量每增加1%，企业中选概率更低，中选价格降幅增加0.26个百分点。结论：药品带量采购可以有效促进原研药产生“专利悬崖”现象，理顺药品价格形成机制。具备原料药生产加工资质的企业体现出更强的成本控制能力。同时，仍可以进一步突出具备原料药生产加工资质企业在国家集采中的重要性以及制定动态触发机制，这有利于保障供应以及进一步运用市场机制降低药品价格。

  关键词： 带量采购; 价格; 影响因素

   

  Abstract: Objectives: To analyze the influencing factors on price reduction in national volume-based procurement (NVBP) in China, so as to investigate the effect of NVBP and probable improvements. Methods: The results from the 2nd-5th rounds of NVBP were selected in analysis. Bidding results including the prices reduction and bid winner were selected as dependent variables. Company characteristics and competition status were chosen as independent variables. A Heckman two stage model was conducted for potential selection bias. Results: Manufactures of brand drugs are less likely to become bid-winner but their price reduction is 41% higher than manufactures of generics. Companies with higher market share (>50%) are less likely to win the bids compare with companies with less (0-50%) or zero share of market. Besides, the price reduction of companies with less market share are 7% fewer than other companies. Manufactures with ability to extract active pharmaceutical ingredients from raw materials are more likely to win but no difference in price reduction was observed. When potential competitors in group increased by 1%, the price reduction increased by 0.26 percentage and companies are less likely to win. Conclusion: VBP program can effectively promote the appearance of “patent cliff” in China and rationalize the pricing mechanism of drugs. However, more importance could be attached to ability of extracting active pharmaceutical ingredients and establishment of dynamic trigger mechanism, which could further improve the supply security and lowering the prices under market mechanism.

  Key words: volume-based procurement; price; influencing factors

  提交时间：2022-03-21

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• 序号	提交日期	编号	操作
  1	2022-01-24	bmr.202203.00008V1	下载

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