通讯作者: 路云, luyuncpu@163.com

DOI：10.12201/bmr.202306.00007

Research on the Implementation Effect of Expiration of National Pharmaceutical Centralized Volume-based Procurement Based on Intermittent Time Series: A Case Study of Hebei Province

• 摘要：目的：为完善国家组织药品集中带量采购协议期满后的接续工作提出建议。方法：筛选2020年11月至2022年9月河北省国采第三批采购期为一年的品种及相关可替代品种的采购数据，采用描述性统计和间断时间序列的方法，分析药品采购量、采购金额和日均费用三个指标的变化情况。结果：接续政策执行后，中选产品三个指标均下降，且变化不显著；未中选产品采购量、采购金额持续增加，日均费用持续下降；集采品种三个指标也呈不显著下降趋势；可替代品种短期内日均费用显著上涨，其采购量、采购金额无显著变化。结论：建议各地以稳定为核心科学制定接续规则，改进市场分配规则，进一步扩大集采成果。同时加强对医疗机构的精细化管理，开展可替代品种的量价监测，逐步扩大集采品种。

  关键词： 药品集中带量采购；接续工作；间断时间序列模型；实施效果研究; ; ; 

   

  Abstract: Objective: To provide suggestions for improving the succession after the expiry of the national organization centralized drug procurement work at the local level in China. Methods: The purchasing data of 21 types of nationally collected drugs and 97 types of varieties with substitutable relationship were screened from November 2020 to September 2022 in Hebei Province. In this study, descriptive statistics and interrupted time-series were used to analyze the changes of drug purchasing volume(measured by Defined Drug Dose numbers, DDDs), expenditure and Defined Daily Drug cost (DDDc). Results: After the implementation of the policy, all of 3 indicators of collected drugs decreased further, and the changes were not significant. The variation trend of winning products was the same as that of collected drugs. The DDDs of non-winning products increased significantly, DDDc decreased significantly, and the expenditure did not change significantly. There was no significant change in the DDDs and expenditure of alternatives, while the DDDc increased significantly. Conclusion: It is recommended that various regions scientifically formulate continuity rules with stability as the core, improve market allocation rules, and further expand the results of centralized procurement. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the refined management of medical institutions, carry out quantity-price monitoring of substitutable varieties, and gradually expand the scope of centralized procurement.

  Key words: National pharmaceutical centralized volume-based procurement; Continuation Policy; Interrupted time series; Implementation effects

  提交时间：2023-06-05

  版权声明：作者本人独立拥有该论文的版权，预印本系统仅拥有论文的永久保存权利。任何人未经允许不得重复使用。
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• 序号	提交日期	编号	操作
  1	2023-01-05	bmr.202306.00007V1	下载

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