通讯作者: 刘军, Liujun615@163.com

DOI：10.12201/bmr.202303.00008

Analysis of changes in healthy life expectancy of the elderly population in China——An empirical study based on census data

• 摘要：目的 探究我国2010—2020年60岁及以上老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异及时空分布特征,为促进健康预期寿命性别平等和地区均衡提供实证依据。方法 基于第六次和第七次人口普查数据,使用沙利文法计算我国60岁及以上老年人口健康预期寿命并比较其时期变动和性别差异,并采用空间自相关(Moran’s I)和LISA检验分析健康预期寿命余寿占比的空间分布特点。结果 健康率随年龄增加而降低,男性老年人口健康率在多数年龄段高于女性,差异主要集中在高龄组中且随着时间缩小。平均预期寿命和健康预期寿命都有所提高,性别差异表现为女性高于男性,女性老年人的时期增量和增长速度大于男性。健康预期寿命余寿占比在随时间扩大的基础上表现为男性高于女性,但性别差异呈缩小趋势,另外,健康预期寿命余寿占比的空间分布特征为东部健康水平优于西部,且十年间地区间的聚集程度加深。结论 近十年我国老年人口健康水平提高,女性在长寿方面存在优势,但生存质量与男性相比仍然存在一定差距；老年人健康预期寿命余寿占比扩大,符合“疾病压缩理论”,同时,健康水平性别不均衡正不断弥合,而地区间集聚现象却有所加重。

  关键词： 健康预期寿命; 沙利文法; 空间自相关

   

  Abstract: Objective To investigate the gender differences and time-space distribution characteristics of healthy life expectancy of the elderly population aged 60 and above in China from 2010 to 2020, and to provide an empirical basis for promoting gender equality and regional balance in healthy life expectancy. Methods Based on the data of the sixth and seventh censuses, the healthy life expectancy of the elderly population aged 60 years and over in China was calculated by Sullivan method, and the period change and gender difference were compared, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the proportion of healthy life expectancy remaining were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation (Morans I) and LISA tests. Results Health rates decrease with age, and the health rate of the male elderly population is higher than that of women in most age groups, with differences mainly concentrated in the older age group and narrowing over time. Both average and healthy life expectancy have improved, with gender differences manifested in women being higher than men, and female older adults increasing and growing faster than men. The proportion of healthy life expectancy remaining on the basis of expanding over time is that men are higher than women, but the sex difference is narrowing, and the spatial distribution of the proportion of healthy life expectancy remaining is characterized by the fact that the health level in the east is better than that in the west, and the concentration between regions has deepened in the past decade. Conclusion The health level of the elderly population in China has improved in recent ten years. Women have advantages in longevity, but there is still a gap in quality of life compared with men; The proportion of the elderlys remaining healthy life expectancy is expanding, which is in line with the disease compression theory. At the same time, the gender imbalance is closing, while the phenomenon of agglomeration between regions has increased.

  Key words: healthy life expectancy; Sullivan; Spatial autocorrelation

  提交时间：2023-03-22

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• 序号	提交日期	编号	操作
  1	2022-10-13	bmr.202303.00008V1	下载

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